1. Overview of the current situation of photovoltaic cell technology: efficiency improvement and cost reduction is an eternal topic for the development of the photovoltaic industry, and in many links of the industrial chain, the solar cell is the core of technological progress and determines the efficiency limit of photovoltaic products. As P-type PERC cells gradually reach the performance limit of mass production (conversion efficiency of about 23.5% and non-silicon wafer cost of about 0.15 yuan/W), the iteration of N-type cell technology represented by TOPCon, HJT, XBC, etc. is accelerating. The better performance of N-type cells has made the premium space for N-type cells and PERC cells continue to widen, and the proportion of N-type modules tendered at the power station end has also increased from less than 5% last year to about 40%-60% at present. With the maturity of the process and the optimization of the cost, each technical route has successively realized the cost performance of mass production, driving the wave of industry expansion.

2. TOPCon cell route: The core of the efficiency improvement of TOPCon (tunneling oxide passivation contact) technology lies in the passivation contact structure of tunneling silicon oxide layer + doped polysilicon layer, with a theoretical limit efficiency of 28.7%. Thanks to its high power and controllable cost increment, TOPCon has taken the lead in entering the stage of large-scale development among many technical routes. At present, TOPCon has a premium of about 8 cents/W over PERC cells, and the cost increases by about 4 cents/W, and solar cell manufacturers can obtain excess returns of about 4 cents/W. By the end of 2023, the nominal production capacity of the whole industry may reach about 500GW, and it is expected to further increase to more than 900GW by 2024. From the perspective of shipments, the market penetration rate of TOPCon products may be close to 30% in 2023, and it is expected to surpass PERC in 2024 to become the new main line of photovoltaic cell technology.

3. HJT solar cell route: HJT (intrinsic thin film heterojunction) cell is named because of the heterogeneous PN junction structure of crystalline silicon + amorphous silicon layer, and the mass production rhythm is later than that of TOPCon, and the main stuck point is the higher slurry cost in the metallization link. At present, the application of multi-busbar structure has promoted the reduction of silver paste consumption, and the cost increment of HJT cells compared with PERC cells can be controlled within 1 cent/W, and the overall premium of HJT module products in the market can reach more than 2 cents/W, which means that leading companies have achieved a good level of profitability. With the gradual introduction of 0BB+ silver-clad copper technology into mass production in the second half of this year, the cost of HJT is expected to be further reduced to the same level as PERC, and HJT cells can be expected to enter the stage of large-scale development. By the end of 2023, the industry-wide nominal production capacity is expected to reach 47GW.

4. XBC solar cell route: BC (interdigitated back contact) solar cell reduces surface optical loss through the metallization structure without grid on the front, which not only improves the aesthetics of the product, but also obtains high conversion efficiency; As a platform-based technology, BC technology can also be superimposed with the passivation structure of PERC, TOPCon, HJT and other routes to further improve the efficiency space. Due to the high technical complexity, only LONGi Green Energy and Aiko have achieved mass production, but the production capacity is still in the commissioning and ramp-up period, and the material and process selection have not yet been completely stable, and there are still challenges in product yield and cost performance. Enterprise shipments are mainly in the European distributed market with higher prices, and if the cost is optimized, it is expected to promote the product to open up the application space of ground power stations. By the end of 2023, the industry-wide nominal production capacity is expected to reach 60GW.

5. Outlook for photovoltaic cell technology trends: At present, N-type cells are still in a period of rising penetration, and with the continuous optimization of the performance indicators of each route, the price spread of N and P cell products is expected to further expand; Among them, the new production capacity of TOPCon cells in 2023 is basically equipped with SE structure, and it is expected to introduce mass production of bifacial polysilicon in the middle and late stages of 2024, driving the product efficiency to increase to more than 26%. After achieving 0BB+ silver-clad copper cost reduction, HJT cells will also gradually explore alternative routes for copper plating process to reduce resistance loss while achieving desilvering; Under the leadership of leading enterprises, the BC solar cell route is expected to accelerate its expansion and drive the maturity of key links such as graphics. In the medium and long term, perovskite-crystalline silicon tandem technology is expected to drive the photovoltaic industry into a new stage of efficiency improvement and cost reduction, helping photovoltaic cells to explore more than 40% of the ultimate efficiency space. At present, most module integration manufacturers have carried out relevant research and pilot line layout, and the industrialization process is expected to accelerate.